The Fed will announce its rate decision today. Bitcoin is at $74,000 – and this is already a signal
💬 94.1% probability of maintaining the rate 3.50%–3.75%. The solution itself is priced. The trade is based on three words from Powell’s mouth – and this is the most important event for crypto in the quarter.
Today at 21:00 Moscow time, Jerome Powell will take the microphone and the crypto market will freeze. Bitcoin is trading around $74,000, up nearly 8% over the past two weeks. ETH is holding above $2,325. This is an important detail: the market is entering the FOMC not out of fear, but from a position of strength – and that is what makes tonight special.The rate decision is a foregone conclusion, with CME FedWatch showing a 94.1% chance of maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% range. Third consecutive pause in the downward cycle. This is not a surprise – this is already taken into account in every position on the market. The real trading signal will appear at 21:30 when the press conference begins.
Why is this meeting fundamentally different from previous ones
This is not your average FOMC. Three factors make it stand out from the overall 2025-2026 cycle.
- First: a quarterly dot plot is published – a summary of the individual forecasts of each of the 19 FOMC members on rates. It was the dot plot in December 2025 that caused Bitcoin to move 12% in 48 hours – stronger than the decision itself.
- Second: this is the first meeting where the Fed is obliged to officially take into account the Iranian oil shock in its forecasts – WTI oil briefly touched $119 per barrel. CNBC economists estimate that the March CPI could rise to 2.6-2.9%, and reach 3.5% by the end of 2026.
- Third: Powell leaves office in May. This is one of his last press conferences – the market will read every word as a hint of policy under his successor Kevin Warsh.
Three scenarios – three different markets
Dovish: Powell mentions rate cuts “in coming meetings” – BTC to $80,000+, altcoins leading. Neutral: “data driven” language, no specifics – range $68,000–$74,000, market switches to April CPI. Hawkish: dot plot shifts to zero declines in 2026 amid oil pressure – return to $65,000, wave of long liquidations.
📌Key facts
▸ BTC: ~$74,000 (+8% in two weeks) | ETH: ~$2,325
▸ FOMC decision: today at 21:00 MSK | Powell press conference: 21:30 MSK
▸ Probability of keeping the rate (CME FedWatch): 94.1%
▸ Dot plot: quarterly publication – historically moves the market stronger than the decision
▸ WTI oil: $87–$100/barrel. after the Iranian conflict – inflation risk
▸ BTC fell after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025 – a pattern that the entire market is following
▸ Powell: one of the last FOMCs before leaving in May
What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market
The market is prepared, but not immune. ETF inflows of $300+ million within 24 hours of Powell are a signal that institutions read his words positively. Outflows above $200 million are a reverse signal. These two numbers will say more tomorrow morning than any technical analysis. For long-term holders, the story is clear: after each of the seven FOMC crashes in 2025, BTC recovered within two weeks.
⚠️ The material is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.
The crypto market isn't just about numbers—it's a complex ecosystem where politics, technology, and economics intertwine. In my news coverage, I strive not merely to recount events, but to analyze their real impact on the market. My goal is to make cryptocurrency news clear, accessible, and objective.
