Bitcoin at $69,500 before the release of inflation data. The day that March will define

Today the CPI report for February is released. Bitcoin reacted with an increase of about 5% to the January CPI – if the data turns out to be below expectations, history may repeat itself.

Tuesday is not an ordinary day for the crypto market. At 16:30 Moscow time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the February report on the consumer price index – and the market holds its breath. Bitcoin is trading around $69,500, having pulled back from an intraday high of $71,612 as investors take profits ahead of key macro data. ETH is holding at $2,022, SOL is adding a modest 0.37%.

Analyst consensus: CPI in February will be about 2.5% in annual terms – slightly higher than January’s 2.4%. Core CPI (without food and energy) is also expected to be 2.5%. Both indicators remain above the Fed’s 2% target, which is what makes today’s release so significant: it will either confirm or refute the current market consensus on the timing of rate cuts.

Three scenarios for the market

If the CPI goes below 2.4%, dollar pressure will weaken, expectations of Fed policy easing will increase, Bitcoin will receive fuel to move towards $75,000–$80,000, and altcoins may overtake BTC in terms of growth percentage. If the data coincides with expectations (2.5%), the reaction will be restrained, the market will remain in the range of $70,000–$74,000 and will shift attention to the FOMC meeting on March 18. If the CPI exceeds 2.5%, this will put pressure on rates and liquidity: Bitcoin may return to the $65,000 zone, triggering a new round of long liquidations.

It is significant that today, March 11, according to analysts’ calculations, the 20 millionth Bitcoin is mined – a historical milestone, about which more details will be found in a separate article below. The market enters one of the busiest days of March amid a supply shortage narrative and tough macro data.

Key facts

• BTC: ~$69,500, pullback from $71,612 (-1.9% in 24 hours) | ETH: $2,022 (+1.78%)
• CPI February 2026: forecast 2.5% – released today at 16:30 MSK
• January CPI (2.4%) provoked an increase in BTC by 5% in 24 hours
• CME FedWatch: 95% probability of maintaining the rate at the meeting on March 18
• Next FOMC: March 18 is the main event for liquidity of the entire quarter
• Wallets of “sharks” (100–1000 BTC): increased to 17,970 addresses – accumulation on the fall

What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market

Today’s CPI is a binary event. It’s not the data itself that’s important, but what it says about the Fed’s next move. If the disinflationary trend continues, the chain of March catalysts – 20 million BTC, CPI, FOMC on March 18 – becomes potentially the most bullish combination of the quarter. Any failure in this chain changes the equation.

⚠️ The material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.